2019 ad fraud predictions

The battle against ad fraud is ongoing, and despite the gains made in 2018 — our industry exposed several big ad fraud schemes across desktop, mobile in-app, and Connected TV/OTT devices this year — overall ad fraud rates continue to rise.

Pixalate CEO Jalal Nasir brings you six ad fraud predictions for 2019. Watch the video and see the full predictions below:

#1: Connected TV/OTT ad fraud attacks have only just begun


• We’ve seen one example of how fraudsters can take advantage of the budding CTV/OTT space (Business Insider)

• CTV/OTT ad fraud schemes will only grow in scale and complexity (Pixalate)

• Tru Optik estimates a 62% uptick in OTT ad spend 
(MediaPost)

• However, there’s also double-digit ad fraud rates (19% in OTT, per Pixalate) 


• Measurement and standardization have not caught up with this space — even as ad spending skyrockets


• Fraudsters will continue to follow the money

#2: Mobile in-app ad fraud schemes will continue to be unearthed


• MegaCast was one of the biggest examples of an apparent mobile app ad fraud scheme (BuzzFeed)


• Other app-based attacks have also been unearthed (BuzzFeed) 


• App stores need to take more control over the apps that are allowed onto their 
platforms

• Continuous monitoring of the apps will also be paramount 


• App ads.txt will help, but the in-app space remains ripe for the picking 


#3: Increased consequences for those who commit ad fraud will lead the industry to be more transparent

• The DOJ’s recent crackdown on an alleged ad fraud operation shows that, in some cases, there are consequences for ad fraud (AdExchanger)


• This case set a precedent for holding fraudsters accountable 


• We believe law enforcement will stay involved, but fraudsters will remain relatively uninhibited

• Monetary rewards for ad fraud remain far too great, and law enforcement involvement is not yet the norm

• Rooting out ad fraud requires transparency and industry-wide collaboration 


• With so many big ad fraud schemes being exposed in 2018, the scale of the problem has been revealed 


• The tides are turning on breach disclosure, and companies will no longer remain quiet

• Historically, affected companies have been quiet whenever an ad fraud breach occurs, which ultimately allows the fraudsters to remain undetected for even longer 


#4: Big players will adopt mobile in-app ads.txt quickly

• From a technical perspective (for publishers), it’s similar to ads.txt for desktop and mobile web.

• We predict top-tier app publishers will quickly adopt ads.txt, but the ‘long tail’ will take longer than it did on desktop


• The greatest risk to adoption lies with the app stores, as they will be required to play a part

#5: Brands will take more control of their ad fraud prevention tech as ‘in-housing’ evolves to its next phase


• Brands have built or mastered in-house tech platforms, and as they execute their own advertising, they will mature to add their own ad fraud protection


• The evolution of in-housing is now turning focus toward improving media quality and protecting investments


• Brands want to take more control of the money they are losing to ad fraud

• Cost efficiencies are the #1 benefit to U.S. companies going “in-house” (eMarketer) 



#6: Double-digit ad fraud rates will persist

• Despite the positive impact of some industry-wide initiatives — like ads.txt — double-digit ad fraud rates persist and ad fraud continues to grow (Pixalate)

• Overall invalid traffic (IVT) rates in the U.S. are 16.6% (Pixalate)

• Global mobile in-app ad fraud rates are 17.1% (Pixalate)

• Global OTT ad fraud rates are 19%, while U.S. OTT ad fraud rates were 18% (Pixalate)

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